Trump and Xi strike a deal (for now)
After weeks of escalating trade war rhetoric, President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met face-to-face in Busan, South Korea on Thursday, and actually delivered something resembling good news.
The agreements:
Tariffs drop from 57% to 47% on Chinese imports (the fentanyl-related tariffs specifically cut to 10%)
One-year pause on rare earth element restrictions—the dispute that nearly triggered 100% tariffs just weeks ago
China commits to buying U.S. soybeans and agricultural products again
Future dialogue scheduled, with Trump planning an April visit to China
The catch: Analysts are calling this a "truce, not a peace." The tariff rate is still historically high, and both sides have shown they're willing to weaponize trade policy on short notice. For logistics companies planning Q1 2026, uncertainty remains the only certainty.
Why this matters for you: If you've been holding off on major supply chain decisions waiting for clarity, you're still waiting. The 10-point tariff reduction helps, but we're nowhere near pre-trade-war normalcy.
Trucking capacity is evaporating (and shippers are panicking)
Covenant Logistics CEO David Parker dropped a data point on their Q3 earnings call that should make every shipper pay attention: customer bids are up 17% since August.
That's unusual. Bidding season typically kicks off in November. Starting in August? That's fear.
What's driving the capacity crunch:
DOT enforcement on English language proficiency standards is forcing carriers out
September emergency ruling made non-U.S. citizens ineligible for CDLs
State Department paused work visa processing for commercial truck operators
The cumulative effect: accelerating capacity exits across the industry
The timing problem: Overcapacity still technically exists (rates have been flat for four years), but forward-looking shippers see the writing on the wall. They're securing capacity now to avoid bigger rate increases in 2026.
The wildcard: Consumer spending remains soft, and tariff uncertainty is suppressing demand. So we've got capacity leaving the market while freight volumes stay depressed. When demand returns, rates could spike hard.
Signs of a slow recovery: The U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index showed quarterly gains in shipments and spending for the first time since 2022—shipments up 2.4% Q2 vs. Q1. But don't break out the champagne yet: that's still down 9.8% compared to Q2 2024.
ACT Research notes the industry has "moved past the bottoming phase" seen in early 2023 and is now "navigating a slow rebalancing process." Translation: We're recovering, but slowly. High interest rates and inventory overhangs are dragging on the pace.
If you're banking on a quick return to 2021-style freight volumes, adjust your expectations.
Cyber criminals are stealing actual trucks full of cargo
Bad actors have figured out a disturbingly effective way to steal freight: hack into logistics companies, pose as legitimate carriers, book loads, and drive off with the goods.
Proofpoint detected a threat cluster active since at least June 2025 that's targeting trucking and logistics companies with remote monitoring software (RMM tools like ScreenConnect, SimpleHelp, PDQ Connect, and LogMeIn Resolve).
How the scheme works:
Compromise email accounts and hijack existing conversations
Post fraudulent freight listings on load boards using hacked credentials
Send malicious URLs to carriers inquiring about loads
Deploy RMM software that gives them complete system access
Conduct reconnaissance, steal credentials, and infiltrate deeper
Delete existing bookings, block dispatcher notifications, add their own devices
Book loads under the compromised carrier's name
Coordinate transport and steal the physical goods
The targets: Asset-based carriers, freight brokerages, and integrated supply chain providers. The most stolen commodities? Food and beverage products, which are likely sold online or shipped overseas.
Why RMM software works so well:
No need to develop custom malware
These tools are commonly used in enterprise environments
Security solutions often don't flag them as malicious
Installers are typically signed and appear legitimate
Bottom line: If you're in logistics, this isn't just an IT problem—it's a physical security and financial exposure problem. The stolen cargo represents real revenue loss, and the reputational damage from being compromised could cost you customers.
Layoffs are accelerating across logistics
The slowdown is getting real, and the layoff announcements keep coming.
The big names:
Amazon: Cutting around 14,000 corporate positions (reports suggest it could reach 30,000 total) due to AI-driven automation and restructuring
Target: Eliminating 1,800 corporate roles, including 1,000 active layoffs
The 3PL sector:
Saddle Creek Logistics: 128 workers cut in Newnan, Georgia after losing a key contract
ID Logistics: 174 jobs eliminated in St. Petersburg, Florida
Averitt Express: 193 positions cut in Alabama following the end of a Mercedes-Benz contract
Allen Distribution: Closing Allentown facility, 70 workers laid off
CBJ Logistics: 101 jobs eliminated in Philadelphia
360x Logistics (Amazon DSP): Closing Wisconsin warehouse, 59 employees cut
Manufacturing and supporting sectors:
Lion Elastomers: Closing Orange, Texas facility (100 jobs)
Saputo Cheese USA: 240 layoffs in Wisconsin
Mannington Mills: Closing three plants in Georgia (200 jobs)
Multiple automotive suppliers across Michigan, Tennessee, and Alabama
The reality: When retailers cut corporate headcount and manufacturers consolidate, logistics operators lose contracts. When Amazon delivery partners close warehouses, it signals volume isn't supporting the existing network.
If you're running a 3PL and thinking your contracts are safe, this is your wake-up call to diversify your customer base.
Tariffs would've added $40.6 billion to last year's holiday spending
LendingTree ran the numbers: if Trump's current tariff regime had been in effect during the 2024 holiday season, consumers and retailers would've faced an additional $40.6 billion burden.
The breakdown:
$28.6 billion would've hit shoppers directly
$12 billion absorbed by retailers
Average consumer impact: $132 extra per person
The most affected categories:
Electronics (69% imported)
Clothing and accessories (88% imported)
Home decor and furnishings
Jewelry, books, and media
Sporting goods
Toys
This year's reality: With tariffs actually in place now, consumers spent an estimated $377.7 billion on imported goods during the holidays last year. A significant portion of that is now subject to additional costs.
For 3PLs: Expect price sensitivity to intensify. Retailers will squeeze margins everywhere, including on fulfillment costs.
Quick Hits
UPS closes $1.6B acquisition of Canadian healthcare logistics provider — The deal brings Andlauer Healthcare Group's temperature-controlled warehouses and trucking network into UPS's healthcare business. AHG operates nine distribution centers and 22 branches across Canada, specializing in pharmaceutical products and vaccines. 2024 revenue: $468 million.
GoBolt acquires Stalco to expand Canadian operations — The sustainable supply chain tech company is adding Stalco's 3PL operations to its network, giving Stalco merchants access to GoBolt's U.S. fulfillment network and sustainable delivery solutions.
Government shutdown costing contractors $3B per week — Federal contractors lost $12 billion in the first four weeks of the shutdown, with 65,500 small businesses affected. Maryland and Virginia are hardest hit, but contractors in Alabama, California, Florida, and Texas are also seeing revenue dry up.
Supreme Court to hear tariff authority case November 5 — Oral arguments Wednesday center on whether Trump overstepped constitutional authority by imposing sweeping tariffs under IEEPA. Challengers argue only Congress can levy tariffs. A ruling against the administration could invalidate billions in collected tariffs and curtail presidential power over trade policy.
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