Logistics Pulse by FulfillYN

Despite economic uncertainty and tariff anxiety, American shoppers showed up for Black Friday—just not at the mall.

The online surge: U.S. consumers dropped a record $11.8 billion online Friday, up 9.1% from last year. Add Thanksgiving's $6.4 billion, and you're looking at serious digital spending. Peak traffic hit between 10 a.m. and 2 p.m., when $12.5 million flowed through virtual shopping carts every minute.

The numbers from other trackers paint an even bigger picture: Salesforce pegged U.S. online sales at $18 billion (and $79 billion globally), while Shopify merchants pulled in $6.2 billion worldwide. Top sellers? Video game consoles, electronics, home appliances, cosmetics, and clothing.

But the stores are getting quieter: In-store traffic fell 3.6% from 2024, according to RetailNext. That's actually better than the 6.2% drop seen in the days before Thanksgiving, but the trend is clear—shoppers are spreading purchases over longer promotional periods and showing up with narrower shopping lists.

"The story isn't just that shoppers stayed home; it's that they're changing how and when they shop," says Joe Shasteen from RetailNext.

The tariff factor: Rising prices are inflating some of those spending totals. While consumers spent more overall, they actually bought fewer items—order volumes dropped 1% and items per checkout fell 2%, even as average prices climbed 7%. Translation: people are paying more for less.

The weekend ahead: Adobe expects another $14.2 billion on Cyber Monday alone, which would set yet another record. For the full November-December season, the National Retail Federation predicts U.S. shoppers will cross $1 trillion for the first time, though growth is slowing to 3.7-4.2% versus 4.3% last year.

For 3PLs: Mobile drove more than half of online sales, and AI-powered shopping services are influencing what people buy. The shift to digital isn't slowing down, which means fulfillment pressure continues even as consumers pull back on total purchases.

If you've been waiting for the freight recession to end, keep waiting. Industry executives are calling this the most prolonged downturn they've seen—and 2026 isn't looking much brighter.

The mood is bleak: "The word of the day is 'uncertainty,'" says Greg Plemmons, COO of Old Dominion Freight Line. The LTL carrier has seen depressed conditions for "something like 33 out of the last 36 months."

When businesses are uncertain, they don't invest in expansion, new machinery, or inventory buildups—all the things that drive freight volume. And tariff chaos isn't helping.

The capacity problem: The trucking market is still flooded with small operators, particularly one-truck independents who have been hanging on despite rock-bottom rates. "You can buy a used truck for $25K, get insurance, hang out a shingle, and you're in business," says John Vaccaro of Bettaway Supply Chain Services.

That oversupply has prevented the usual supply/demand correction. But two recent regulatory changes are starting to shake things out:

One estimate suggests 200,000 non-domiciled licenses had been issued in the U.S.—and some industry watchers believe those drivers are the main reason for the market's excess capacity.

What about 2026? Most executives expect the first half to look like 2025, with a possible uptick in late Q2 at the earliest. The impact of tariffs on consumers "has not hit yet," Janson warns. And while some capacity is finally leaving the market, optimism remains cautious at best.

The consensus: uncertainty will continue, and shippers need to plan for more disruptions.

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Layoffs announced over the past five weeks across automotive, food processing, logistics, and manufacturing total at least 11,934 workers—and the real number is likely higher, as several companies described cuts as "over" or occurring in phases without final totals.

Notable cuts:

The pattern is clear: companies are consolidating operations, closing facilities that aren't profitable, and cutting headcount in a soft freight market where volume isn't justifying current capacity.

New research from Mecalux and MIT's Intelligent Logistics Systems Lab shows AI and automation have moved from experimental to essential in warehouse operations—and the results are better than expected.

The adoption numbers: More than 9 out of 10 warehouses now use some form of AI or advanced automation. Over half operate at advanced or fully automated maturity levels, especially larger businesses with complex multi-site networks.

AI now supports day-to-day workflows including order picking, inventory optimization, equipment maintenance, labor planning, and safety monitoring. This isn't pilot-program stuff anymore.

The payback is fast: Most businesses dedicate 11-30% of warehouse tech budgets to AI and machine learning, with typical payback periods of just 2-3 years. Returns come from measurable gains in inventory accuracy, throughput, labor efficiency, and error reduction.

But scaling is hard: "The hard part now is the last mile: integrating people, data and analytics seamlessly into existing systems," says Dr. Matthias Winkenbach, Director of MIT's ILS Lab.

Top barriers include technical expertise, system integration, data quality, and implementation cost. Even with strong foundations in data and project management, connecting advanced tools with legacy systems remains a challenge.

AI isn't killing jobs—it's changing them: More than 75% of organizations saw employee productivity and satisfaction rise after implementing AI tools. Over half reported growing their workforce.

New roles are emerging: AI/ML engineers, automation specialists, process-improvement experts, and data scientists. The research shows intelligent automation is expanding, not reducing, the human role in warehouse operations.

What's next: Nearly every company surveyed plans to scale AI use over the next 2-3 years. 87% expect to increase AI budgets, and 92% are implementing or planning new AI projects.

Shopify's Cyber Monday nightmare: Just as Cyber Monday kicked off, Shopify's platform crashed, leaving merchants unable to process checkouts or access their admin portals. Company president Harvey Finkelstein's "HAPPY CYBER MONDAY! Let's finish strong!" post on X attracted furious replies from business owners. One merchant wrote, "How??? [We] cannot fulfill orders or log on." Shopify found and fixed the login authentication issue around 2:30 p.m. ET, but the damage was done on one of the biggest sales days of the year.

Amazon's 30-minute grocery play: Amazon is launching ultrafast delivery for groceries and staples in the U.S., promising 30-minute delivery windows. This is another front in the last-mile speed wars, and it means more pressure on fulfillment operations to hit impossibly tight windows. If you thought same-day was demanding, wait until customers expect milk and eggs in half an hour.

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